Abstract:
Understanding the role of cash crop export in strengthening a country’s
middle-income class is paramount. Export crop trade data from selected crops
between 1995 and 2000 were analysed using Box and Jenkins' model to assess
implications for middle-income countries. The Box and Jenkins forecast
projected export trade values up to the year 2028. Results indicate that
increased exporting of crops and the achievement of middle-income country
status have a bidirectional influence. The increase in crop exports influenced
middle-income countries status achievement, and middle-income countries
status led to more exports of cash crops. The intermediation of Gross National
Income was also effective, significantly contributing to crop export and
growth of Gross National Income. Further, cashew and sisals crops showed
a significant upward trend, thus calling for country crop specific investment
strategy. Also, there should be more focus on increase exports crops and
policy strategies. Strategic investment and reassessment of market forces and
export standards requirements are recommended for further study. The study
extends the Ricardian comparative advantage framework by highlighting
Tanzania’s stable and positive export performance in sisal and cashew during
economic shocks.
